2020智能交通行業發展現狀及前景分析

        在物聯網、人工智能等新技術興(xing)起之際，智能交通行業(ye)隨之踏入市(shi)場需(xu)求快速擴容階段，并因良好(hao)(hao)的市(shi)場效益(yi)，被(bei)地方政府當(dang)作是新的經濟增長點。智能交通逐(zhu)漸從概念(nian)走向現實，也意味著(zhu)其前景日益(yi)明朗(lang)，發(fa)展形勢大好(hao)(hao)。

在物聯網、人工(gong)智(zhi)(zhi)能等新(xin)技(ji)術興起之際，智(zhi)(zhi)能交通行業隨(sui)之踏入市(shi)(shi)場需求快速擴容(rong)階(jie)段，并因良好的市(shi)(shi)場效(xiao)益，被地方政府(fu)當作(zuo)是新(xin)的經(jing)濟增長點。智(zhi)(zhi)能交通逐漸(jian)從概念走向現實，也意味(wei)著(zhu)其前(qian)景日益明朗，發展形勢大好。近年來(lai)，隨(sui)著(zhu)工(gong)業4.0和(he)中國(guo)制造(zao)(zao)2025戰略(lve)的(de)(de)推(tui)進，制造(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)化轉型升級進行地(di)如火如荼，智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)交通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)領(ling)域也正進行著一(yi)場(chang)深刻(ke)的(de)(de)變革。智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)交通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)發(fa)展(zhan)還(huan)處于(yu)不(bu)斷完(wan)善當中，未(wei)來將發(fa)掘更多物聯網的(de)(de)應用潛能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)，以助力智(zhi)慧城(cheng)市(shi)建(jian)設(she)。城(cheng)市(shi)智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)交通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)系統(tong)(tong)在基礎設(she)施(shi)和(he)集成應用上面(mian)已(yi)經(jing)取得了顯著的(de)(de)成效，首先智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)交通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)已(yi)經(jing)逐步完(wan)善，在很(hen)多國(guo)家級大型活動和(he)峰會當中都凸顯了智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)交通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)系統(tong)(tong)起到的(de)(de)作(zuo)用，同時在日常我們百姓(xing)出行、車路協(xie)同等方面(mian)在城(cheng)市(shi)的(de)(de)快(kuai)速發(fa)展(zhan)過程當中表現出一(yi)定的(de)(de)效果。智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)交通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)已(yi)經(jing)成為(wei)了城(cheng)市(shi)建(jian)設(she)不(bu)可(ke)(ke)分割的(de)(de)重要(yao)組成部分。在相關(guan)領(ling)域，無(wu)論是政(zheng)府的(de)(de)政(zheng)策扶(fu)持還(huan)是行業(ye)(ye)本身的(de)(de)良性發(fa)展(zhan)，都為(wei)智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)交通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)發(fa)展(zhan)創造(zao)(zao)了一(yi)個(ge)良好的(de)(de)環境，智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)交通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)市(shi)場(chang)大有可(ke)(ke)為(wei)。隨著PPP項目的(de)(de)大力推(tui)行，智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)交通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)項目的(de)(de)運作(zuo)從以前的(de)(de)單兵(bing)作(zuo)戰，向(xiang)各(ge)領(ling)先技術企業(ye)(ye)各(ge)資(zi)本投資(zi)商聯合集群(qun)作(zuo)戰方向(xiang)發(fa)展(zhan)，雖然(ran)項目越(yue)(yue)(yue)做越(yue)(yue)(yue)大，但反而投資(zi)價值(zhi)越(yue)(yue)(yue)來越(yue)(yue)(yue)高(gao)，系統(tong)(tong)集成度越(yue)(yue)(yue)來越(yue)(yue)(yue)高(gao)，技術壁壘越(yue)(yue)(yue)來越(yue)(yue)(yue)少，這無(wu)疑為(wei)智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)交通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)行業(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)發(fa)展(zhan)帶(dai)來了更多可(ke)(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)。

據中(zhong)研普華研究報(bao)告《》分(fen)析

近年來，中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)交(jiao)通(tong)智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)化水平正持(chi)續提(ti)升，互聯網與交(jiao)通(tong)融合的(de)步伐(fa)也在(zai)加快，智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)交(jiao)通(tong)已經成為中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)智(zhi)慧(hui)城市建設需(xu)要突破(po)的(de)重要領(ling)域。目(mu)前，中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)交(jiao)通(tong)主要分為三個(ge)領(ling)域：城市智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)交(jiao)通(tong)及高速(su)公路智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)交(jiao)通(tong)和其他領(ling)域智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)交(jiao)通(tong)。2018年(nian)中國(guo)(guo)智能(neng)交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)市場(chang)規(gui)模(mo)達(da)1340.6億元，同比增長14.87%。2019年(nian)中國(guo)(guo)智能(neng)交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)市場(chang)規(gui)模(mo)約1520.2億元。大幅增強(qiang)綜(zong)合(he)交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)運輸(shu)協同運行和智能(neng)監管能(neng)力，全(quan)(quan)面提升(sheng)中國(guo)(guo)綜(zong)合(he)交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)運輸(shu)的(de)綜(zong)合(he)化、智能(neng)化水平和服務品質。到(dao)2022年(nian)，形(xing)成(cheng)新一代(dai)綜(zong)合(he)交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)運輸(shu)與(yu)智能(neng)交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)技術體系(xi)，為實(shi)施國(guo)(guo)家重大發展(zhan)戰略，提供高效、可持(chi)續(xu)的(de)綜(zong)合(he)交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)運輸(shu)系(xi)統支撐。車只是(shi)(shi)智能(neng)交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)體系(xi)的(de)一個重要(yao)元素(su)，卻不是(shi)(shi)全(quan)(quan)部。自動駕駛汽車，本(ben)質上都是(shi)(shi)要(yao)實(shi)現智能(neng)交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)，以提升(sheng)整體交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)效率、提高安全(quan)(quan)系(xi)數(shu)和提升(sheng)出行體驗。

在《推進“互(hu)(hu)聯網+”便捷(jie)交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)，促進(jin)智(zhi)(zhi)能交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)發(fa)展的實(shi)施方案(an)》的推動(dong)下，中國(guo)(guo)智(zhi)(zhi)能交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)將真(zhen)正進(jin)入(ru)產業(ye)化發(fa)展階段，圍繞(rao)智(zhi)(zhi)能交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)應用將形成一(yi)個(ge)(ge)龐(pang)大的產業(ye)鏈，為相關行業(ye)帶來(lai)千(qian)億元市場商機。截至2019年9月，全國(guo)(guo)共有252個(ge)(ge)地(di)級以(yi)上城(cheng)市發(fa)行“交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)聯合”卡，主要業(ye)務領域(yu)涉及公交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)、軌(gui)道、出(chu)租車(che)、輪渡、自行車(che)、城(cheng)際巴士(shi)等多種(zhong)交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)方式(shi)。其(qi)中，210個(ge)(ge)城(cheng)市市區全部公交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)線路(lu)(lu)實(shi)現互(hu)(hu)聯互(hu)(hu)通(tong)，13個(ge)(ge)城(cheng)市軌(gui)道線路(lu)(lu)實(shi)現互(hu)(hu)聯互(hu)(hu)通(tong)，35個(ge)(ge)城(cheng)市開通(tong)了試運(yun)行公交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)線路(lu)(lu)，總計覆(fu)蓋全國(guo)(guo)2.2萬(wan)條公交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)線路(lu)(lu)、52條軌(gui)道線路(lu)(lu)。2019年底實(shi)現260個(ge)(ge)地(di)級城(cheng)市一(yi)卡通(tong)互(hu)(hu)聯互(hu)(hu)通(tong)。預計2020年基本(ben)實(shi)現全國(guo)(guo)范圍內跨(kua)市域(yu)、跨(kua)省域(yu)互(hu)(hu)聯互(hu)(hu)通(tong)。

目前國內智能(neng)交(jiao)通系統行業逐漸從前期走(zou)向快速發展階(jie)段(duan)，但地區差(cha)異明顯(xian)。由于交(jiao)通行業信息化(hua)需求復雜，覆蓋(gai)面較廣，使得細分(fen)市(shi)場(chang)眾多，市(shi)場(chang)的集(ji)中度較低，整個行業中沒有(you)處于絕對市(shi)場(chang)領(ling)先的企業。目前國內從事(shi)智能(neng)交(jiao)通行業的企業約(yue)有(you)2000多家(jia)(jia)，主要(yao)集(ji)中在道路(lu)(lu)監控、高(gao)速(su)公(gong)(gong)(gong)路(lu)(lu)收費(fei)(fei)、3S(GPS、GIS、RS)和(he)系(xi)統(tong)集(ji)成環節。目(mu)前國(guo)內約有(you)500家(jia)(jia)企(qi)業(ye)在從(cong)事監控產(chan)品的(de)生產(chan)和(he)銷售。高(gao)速(su)公(gong)(gong)(gong)路(lu)(lu)收費(fei)(fei)系(xi)統(tong)是中國(guo)非常有(you)特色(se)的(de)智能交通領域(yu)，國(guo)內約有(you)200多家(jia)(jia)企(qi)業(ye)從(cong)事相關產(chan)品的(de)生產(chan)，并且國(guo)內企(qi)業(ye)已取得了具有(you)自(zi)主知識產(chan)權(quan)的(de)高(gao)速(su)公(gong)(gong)(gong)路(lu)(lu)不停車(che)收費(fei)(fei)雙界(jie)面CPU卡技術。在3S領域(yu)，國(guo)內雖然有(you)200多家(jia)(jia)企(qi)業(ye)，一些龍(long)頭企(qi)業(ye)在高(gao)速(su)公(gong)(gong)(gong)路(lu)(lu)機電系(xi)統(tong)、高(gao)速(su)公(gong)(gong)(gong)路(lu)(lu)智能卡、地理信息(xi)系(xi)統(tong)和(he)快速(su)公(gong)(gong)(gong)交智能系(xi)統(tong)領域(yu)占據(ju)了重要(yao)的(de)地位。

智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)在未來交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)運(yun)輸行業發(fa)展中(zhong)占有很大比例，因為在中(zhong)國普遍(bian)存在道路擁堵，交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)供(gong)需(xu)不平衡，城市、人口、交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)三者之間(jian)的(de)矛盾日(ri)益凸顯等很多難題，這(zhe)些都需(xu)要大力發(fa)展智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)，才能(neng)(neng)使當前的(de)城市交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)面貌得到改善，發(fa)展取得良(liang)性循環。交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)部指出，人工智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)將結合(he)資(zi)通(tong)訊(xun)與5G技(ji)(ji)(ji)術擴大(da)(da)應(ying)(ying)用于自動駕(jia)駛巴士、車(che)流(liu)特征(zheng)分析(xi)、交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)事件偵測及交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)行(xing)為分析(xi)等領域。智(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)管理已(yi)成功導(dao)(dao)入人(ren)(ren)工智(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術于交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)事故(gu)熱點(dian)分析(xi)、車(che)流(liu)偵測及行(xing)人(ren)(ren)安(an)全警示(shi)等應(ying)(ying)用，并于游覽車(che)業者全面導(dao)(dao)入建置(zhi)衛星(xing)定位設備，透過動態監控(kong)管理，提升行(xing)車(che)安(an)全。隨著技(ji)(ji)(ji)術的(de)發展(zhan)，智(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)系統(tong)建設邁入新階(jie)段。面向公眾的(de)智(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)化服務問(wen)題得到(dao)社會(hui)重視，智(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)化服務水平(ping)逐步提升。《交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)強國建設綱要(yao)》更是(shi)明確指(zhi)出，大(da)(da)力發展(zhan)智(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)慧(hui)交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)，推動大(da)(da)數據、互(hu)聯(lian)網(wang)、人(ren)(ren)工智(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)、區塊(kuai)鏈、超級計算等新技(ji)(ji)(ji)術與交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)行(xing)業深度融(rong)合(he)。未來，智(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)市(shi)(shi)場將出現(xian)大(da)(da)幅增(zeng)(zeng)長的(de)原因(yin)是(shi)因(yin)為城(cheng)市(shi)(shi)人(ren)(ren)口在(zai)持(chi)續增(zeng)(zeng)長、人(ren)(ren)口增(zeng)(zeng)長率(lv)也(ye)處(chu)于高(gao)位、互(hu)聯(lian)車(che)輛與智(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術在(zai)交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)基礎設施(shi)內(nei)的(de)應(ying)(ying)用率(lv)持(chi)續走高(gao)及自由貿易協定的(de)增(zeng)(zeng)多。此(ci)外(wai)，政府(fu)正在(zai)推動的(de)智(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)城(cheng)市(shi)(shi)策略等也(ye)起到(dao)了推動作用。在(zai)交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)模(mo)式中，未來航空業的(de)增(zeng)(zeng)幅可能(neng)是(shi)最高(gao)的(de)，這主要(yao)是(shi)因(yin)為乘客(ke)更喜歡(huan)快捷(jie)、舒適(shi)的(de)出行(xing)方式。

2020智能交通行業發展面臨挑戰

盡(jin)管中國智(zhi)能交通前景廣闊，屬于(yu)(yu)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)升級(ji)受(shou)益行業(ye)(ye)，未(wei)來(lai)高成(cheng)長趨勢明顯，但也面臨著不(bu)少困難和挑戰。其(qi)一，由于(yu)(yu)物聯(lian)網技術在智(zhi)能交通領域應用(yong)的(de)構架尚(shang)未(wei)明確，標準體系尚(shang)不(bu)健(jian)全、不(bu)統一，規模經濟(ji)不(bu)夠，盈利模式未(wei)可行，大大增加了企業(ye)(ye)的(de)應用(yong)成(cheng)本，不(bu)利于(yu)(yu)智(zhi)能交通的(de)推(tui)行;其二(er)，傳(chuan)感(gan)器成(cheng)本、性能和壽命(ming)，在技(ji)(ji)(ji)術上與交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)(tong)應(ying)(ying)用的要求還不(bu)(bu)相(xiang)適(shi)應(ying)(ying)，傳(chuan)感(gan)、支撐網(wang)絡也(ye)尚未建立(li)，地址(zhi)資(zi)源嚴重缺失(shi)，行業(ye)(ye)(ye)數(shu)據(ju)(ju)中(zhong)心特(te)別是部級層面(mian)(mian)(mian)的行業(ye)(ye)(ye)數(shu)據(ju)(ju)中(zhong)心尚未真正廣泛創建，影(ying)響智(zhi)能交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)(tong)深入應(ying)(ying)用;其三，關鍵技(ji)(ji)(ji)術仍受制(zhi)于(yu)人，研發(fa)急需突破。目(mu)前(qian)國內(nei)70%以上的智(zhi)能交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)(tong)高(gao)端市場(chang)被國外企業(ye)(ye)(ye)搶占，中(zhong)國在RFID、傳(chuan)感(gan)器上并無主(zhu)導權，仍受制(zhi)于(yu)美國、歐盟，國內(nei)盈利面(mian)(mian)(mian)較小;其四，智(zhi)能交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)(tong)研究和示范(fan)應(ying)(ying)用點(dian)分散而(er)不(bu)(bu)成(cheng)體系，技(ji)(ji)(ji)術參差不(bu)(bu)齊，市場(chang)競爭(zheng)秩(zhi)序也(ye)不(bu)(bu)完善，也(ye)給整個(ge)智(zhi)能交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)(tong)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)的發(fa)展帶來負面(mian)(mian)(mian)影(ying)響;其五，目(mu)前(qian)國內(nei)智(zhi)能交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)(tong)IT企業(ye)(ye)(ye)多(duo)數(shu)規(gui)模較小，企業(ye)(ye)(ye)穩定性相(xiang)對較弱，國際廠商加緊搶占市場(chang)，企業(ye)(ye)(ye)業(ye)(ye)(ye)績波動幅度或加大(da)。

智能交通作為一個新(xin)(xin)經濟增長點(dian)的(de)戰略新(xin)(xin)興產業(ye)，具(ju)有(you)良(liang)好的(de)市場(chang)效益，其市場(chang)前景十分廣闊。在安(an)防領域的(de)應用范(fan)圍也非常廣闊，僅(jin)以機場(chang)為例，全(quan)國大中型機場(chang)約100余個(ge)，按照每(mei)個(ge)機場建(jian)(jian)設10-20公(gong)里(li)圍(wei)界計(ji)(ji)算，市(shi)場容量(liang)就將(jiang)在(zai)50億元以(yi)上(shang)。預計(ji)(ji)未來5年中(zhong)(zhong)，中(zhong)(zhong)國將(jiang)在(zai)200個(ge)以(yi)上(shang)的大中(zhong)(zhong)型城市(shi)建(jian)(jian)立城市(shi)交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)指揮中(zhong)(zhong)心。中(zhong)(zhong)心將(jiang)集公(gong)安交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)GIS綜合業務(wu)管(guan)理(li)、視頻監控、信號控制(zhi)、交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)信息檢測、GPS車(che)輛定位(wei)、通(tong)(tong)信調(diao)度指揮及(ji)交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)信息發布(bu)等系(xi)統于一體。